Capture-recapture Techniques in Estimating the HIV/Hepatitis Prevalence in Gboko, Benue State Nigeria

Iorhen, T.S¹ and Jibasen, D²

Department of Statistics and Operations Research

Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola

¹stephenterco@gmail.com

²djibasen@mautech.edu.ng

Abstract

Capture-Recapture technique is used to estimate the number of individuals in a population. This study aimed at estimating the number of HIV/Hepatitis co-infection individuals in Gboko Local Government Area of Benue state, in order to plan or create more awareness of HIV/Hepatitis and to take control measures and prevention. The data were sourced from three data sources namely; General Hospital Gboko, Myom Hospital Gboko and NKST Hospital Mkar. The records showed that, between year 2015-2018, 1,205 HIV/Hepatitis patients registered in Gboko Local Government Area, 662 (54.94%) were identified in General Hospital (GH), 357 (29.63%) in Myom Hospital (MH) and 186 (15.44%) in Nongo Kristu u ser u Sha Tar (NKST) Hospital. Matching the records revealed that, 62 HIV/Hepatitis co-infection individuals or patients were captured by the three data source all together; 31(50%) were captured in General Hospital and Myom Hospital, 15(24.19%) in General Hospital and NKST Hospital, 5(8.07%) in Myom and NKST Hospitals and 11(17.74%) in General Hospital, Myom and NKST Hospitals. The three (3) health facilities were treated as 3 source capture-recapture (C-R) data to estimate the population size of HIV/Hepatitis co-infection in the study Area. The data was analyzed using record linkage/matching and log-linear model techniques, also R statistical package software was used to run the data. The results show that, the model that best fit the data is model (4) with interaction GH+MH+NKST+NKST*GH+NKST*MH with the estimated HIV/Hepatitis co-infected patients at 7182 with a 95% confidence interval of, 5348-10128. The total coverage stood at 16%, this implies that only 16% of the HIV/Hepatitis infected persons are recorded in the study area. Thus, expanded data collection and analysis is recommended.

Keywords: Capture-recapture model, HIV/Hepatitis, log-linear model,