A Logistic Regression model of Road Traffic Fatalities in Benue State: Implication to Public Health

Abstract

Road accident fatalities remain one of the major causes of deaths in Nigeria. These accidents sometimes appear to occur at some flashpoints where there are sharp bends or curves, Potholes due to bad roads, and bad sections of the highways. The study aimed to model road traffic fatalities in Benue State with implications for public health. The data used for the study was sourced from the department of the rescue unit, Federal Road Safety Corps, Benue State Command from July 2011-December 2019. To better comprehend the impact of sex on successfully having a non-fatal accident, we employed a logistic regression analysis. The results indicated that for the 3,545 RTAs used in the model, the model correctly predicted whether or not someone will have a fatal accident 81.7% of the time. The results further showed that females have .970 times the odds of not having a fatal accident compared to males with statistically significant value (P =.015, 95% C.I .652, .956). The results also stated that males demonstrated a greater likelihood to be involved in a fatal accident than the female with statistically significant difference (P =.015, 95% C.I .652, .956). The study, therefore concluded that sex or gender is an influential predictor and as such, has a significant effect on the status of an accident. The implication of the results to public health is that people are likely to spend more money on hospital bills with an increased number of disabilities caused as a result of these accidents which may result to a reduction in physical activity in the next decade if the rate of accidents is not controlled.